Evaluating Markets

Top-down market sizing that begins with a global industry figure and applies an assumed percentage is usually decorative. Bottom-up sizing, built from the number of reachable customers multiplied by realistic annual contract value, can be interrogated.

Market timing matters more than market size at the early stage. A large market that has been large for thirty years without being disrupted may be structurally resistant to the approach being proposed.

Ask what changed. A credible early-stage company can usually name the specific shift, technical, regulatory or behavioral, that made their approach viable now when it was not viable five years ago.